Taizhou Xinyuan Machinnery Co.,Ltd , https://www.xinyuanmachinery.com
By the end of 2007, China's soda ash production capacity was expected to reach 18.5 million tons, with an output of 17 million tons. In 2008, three new plants were set to come online. Based on historical capacity utilization rates and market conditions, the output for 2008 was projected to rise to 18.5 million tons, up from 17 million tons in 2007—an increase of 1.5 million tons. This growth rate was expected to be around 8.82%, which marked a slight decline compared to previous years. Meanwhile, domestic shipments increased by 9.52% in 2007, reflecting the lowest growth rate in recent years, and it was anticipated that this trend would continue into 2008, remaining below the GDP growth rate.
It was estimated that China’s GDP would grow by approximately 10.5% in 2008. Given the historical correlation between domestic soda ash consumption and GDP growth, it was reasonable to expect a similar growth rate of about 10% in soda ash demand. The primary driver of this growth was flat glass, which has been a major consumer of soda ash. With real estate development expected to maintain a steady pace in 2008, along with increased adoption of double-glazed windows and higher glass exports, the production of flat glass was forecasted to grow between 12% and 15%.
Additionally, daily glass production, including bottles for beer, wine, and other beverages, was expected to grow by around 15%. However, the appreciation of the renminbi was likely to limit export growth, as it made Chinese products more expensive in international markets.
During the first three quarters of 2008, the domestic soda ash market was expected to experience a slight tightening due to rising demand. Several new facilities were scheduled to come online in the third and fourth quarters, which could help balance supply and demand. By the end of the year, the overall supply and demand situation was expected to remain relatively balanced.
However, rising costs of raw materials, energy, and transportation were expected to put upward pressure on production expenses for soda ash manufacturers. As a result, the average price of soda ash for 2008 was likely to be higher than in 2007, driven by both cost increases and market dynamics.
October 08, 2025