Should the car "go to the countryside twice"?

On May 28th, a news broke out in foreign media led to an overall sluggish domestic auto market: China will launch a new round of policies to stimulate auto consumption, and “old policies” such as autos going to the countryside and trade-in replacements are expected to be introduced again. . Affected by this news, auto stocks rose in response.

An “authoritative source” stated that the new automobile consumption stimulus policy has been formulated well and will be implemented in a “targeted manner” within “a certain range”. Whether or not the final introduction will depend on the macroeconomic operating conditions. As of now, the news has not received any affirmative response from the government.

Judging from the general environment, the "targeted" auto industry stimulus policy to be introduced this round is a helpless move under the macroeconomic failure to achieve the expected growth rate. In the case where exports cannot be fundamentally improved and real estate regulation still cannot be relaxed, policy incentives for the pillar industries represented by automobiles are required for the transformation of China's economy from "structural adjustment" to "guarantee growth."

Judging from the operating conditions of the auto industry, the domestic auto market in the first two quarters of this year basically maintained its downturn in 2011—the overall growth rate has dropped from the explosive growth of previous years to the predicament of almost standing on the ground—it seems that “ Rescuing the market has become an imminent task.

Is this true?

We may wish to recall the background of the last round of the automobile industry stimulus policy. At that time, it was in the midst of the global financial crisis. As China's counter-trend “guaranteeing eight” was a arduous task, many industrial revitalization plans were issued, and the automobile industry was also included. Under the framework of the automobile industry adjustment and revitalization plan, a package of stimulus plans for automobile consumption was introduced. The combination of purchase tax incentives, car-to-country, and trade-in policy has allowed the Chinese auto market to usher in explosive growth for two consecutive years. It has become the world’s largest automotive production and sales market, and has caused traditional automobile manufacturers in Europe, America and Japan to lose sight.

However, the fact that Shengji will decline is a constant truth and a normal market law. With the withdrawal of policies encouraging car consumption and the rigid demand for large amounts of car consumption being overdrawn ahead of schedule, the domestic auto market has entered a period of low-speed growth adjustment since 2011. Until the first quarter of this year, the growth rate of the domestic auto market remained stagnating in single digits.

Therefore, it is suggested that the relevant departments of the state issue a new round of the automobile consumption stimulus policy again. Until recently, the news of overseas media made this proposal infinitely close to reality.

The question is: Will the old-fashioned resumption of automobile stimulus policies really achieve the effect of "maintaining growth" and "saving the market?" The reason why the auto market soared three years ago is that the Chinese auto market has experienced a few years of downturn before 2009, and a large number of depressed consumer demand has been released under the stimulus of the policy, especially the purchase tax of 1.6L and below. Policies have played a very significant role.

However, the automotive industry is only facing the renewal of rural production tools, and a large amount of demand has also been overdrawn; trade-in replacements will not bring about an increase in the market, and similar policies that have been repeatedly implemented within a few years will have a very limited boost to the market. .

As for the "rescue" argument is even more unnecessary. Although the Chinese auto market has fallen into a downturn in the past two years, it is only due to the consumption laws of the auto market. Any further stimulus measures taken under the world's top production and sales base are all eager for quick success. In the long run, the Chinese auto market still has enormous potential for consumption. In the short term, the ups and downs of the market will be detrimental to the healthy and steady development of the auto industry in the future.

In my opinion, the automobile industry policy should avoid drastic fluctuations in the market. In the market economy environment, it should be changed from a policy maker to a market participant. It should start from cultivating a healthy car consumption environment and not let the policy lead the market. .

Even if a new car consumption stimulus policy is introduced, it should focus on the encouragement of new energy vehicles - whether it is the car to the countryside or trade-in should be targeted subsidies for energy-saving and environmentally friendly models - this is not only in line with the concept of transformation and development It can also bring new growth points to new energy vehicles and energy-saving and environmentally friendly models. From the simple stimulus to the growth of auto consumption to the adjustment of industry and product structure, it is a positive solution.