In 2007, China's petroleum and chemical industry will face six policy changes, which will cause certain changes in the development of the industry. The six major changes are as follows:
First, the opening up of the crude oil and refined oil wholesale markets is based on the WTO commitments. After five years of China’s accession to the WTO, China will open up the wholesale operation of domestic crude oil and refined oil products. The Ministry of Commerce has recently released the Measures for the Administration of the Refined Oil Market and the Measures for the Administration of the Crude Oil Market, which will take effect on January 1, 2007. At present, China's crude oil resources are uniformly allocated by the country, and refined oil products are also centrally distributed by PetroChina and Sinopec. After the implementation of the two measures, this pattern will be broken, while allowing qualified companies to engage in wholesale operations of crude oil and refined oil in China. In the long run, this move is expected to accelerate the process of marketization in China's oil circulation, cultivate diversified market players, and gradually create a market competition pattern in which oil sources and business entities are diversified and brands and services are differentiated. However, due to years of accumulation and operation, the sales networks of CNPC and Sinopec have improved their overall advantages and competitiveness. Therefore, the impact of the opening of the crude oil and refined oil wholesale markets on the two major companies is expected to increase. Not great.
Second, the reform of refined oil pricing mechanism On March 26, 2006, while the National Development and Reform Commission announced the increase in refined oil prices, it also communicated to the local oil comprehensive reform program, but afterwards how did China’s refined oil pricing mechanism change? There has been no clear-cut answer as a result of endless delays. It is expected that the NDRC will continue to promote this reform in 2007. The overall concept is to change the price of refined oil to the price of crude oil in the three places. The most likely option is based on the average of Brent, Dubai, and Minas crude oil prices, plus the cost of refining. With appropriate profit margins, domestic tariffs, refined oil circulation fees, etc., together form the domestic retail price benchmark for refined oil products. If the reform is implemented, the overall loss of the refining industry is expected to change completely.
Third, natural gas prices will continue to increase In comparison with international prices, domestic natural gas prices will be extremely low, leading to an irrational natural gas consumption structure in China. At present, China's natural gas consumption grows at an average annual growth rate of 25%, but civil gas accounts for less than 27% of the natural gas consumption structure. At present, relevant departments have reached a consensus on the rise in domestic natural gas prices. It is expected that the gas price will gradually increase by 5% to 8% per year until it is roughly in line with the international price level. At the end of 2005, China had raised the ex-factory price of natural gas nationwide. According to the different gas supply conditions in different oil fields, the ex-factory prices of natural gas for industrial and urban gas use in all oil and gas fields increased by 50 to 150 yuan per 1,000 cubic meters, and the ex-factory price of natural gas for chemical fertilizers was 1,000. Cubic increase by 50 to 100 yuan, the average price increase is about 10%. It is expected that the new round of price increases will be chosen by the end of this year or early next year, with a price increase of around 8%. The upward adjustment of natural gas prices will benefit upstream gas supply companies, but the downstream gas market will face reshuffle, and some gas-headed urea companies will increase related costs.
Fourth, a total ban on five kinds of highly toxic pesticides At present, whether domestic or foreign, some chemical pesticides have 'triple causes' (ie, carcinogenic, teratogenic, mutagenic) problems in humans and pollution of the ecological environment, especially The pollution of groundwater has affected the survival and health of human beings, and it has increasingly attracted the attention of governments of all countries. According to the provisions of the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Agriculture, since January 1, 2007, China will withdraw all five kinds of highly toxic pesticides including methamidophos, monocrotophos, methyl parathion, parathion and phosphoamine. Registration certificates and production licenses for formulated products completely banned the use of these five highly toxic pesticides in agriculture. At present, the total output of these 5 highly toxic pesticides in China is about 100,000 tons/year, accounting for 20% to 25% of the total amount of pesticides, and their output value accounts for about 15% of the total output value, which is about 300 million yuan. The withdrawal of highly toxic pesticides will provide opportunities for low-toxic pesticide manufacturers with good marketing networks.
Fifth, the reform of chemical fertilizer policy In 2007, China will further promote the reform of the chemical fertilizer industry, liberalize the fertilizer distribution market, liberalize fertilizer prices, gradually phase out the preferential policies for fertilizer production and circulation, and finally realize the complete marketization of the fertilizer industry. The distribution market for fertilizers is liberalized, the reshuffling within the industry is inevitable, and competition will be even fiercer.
According to relevant department statistics, the fertilizer industry enjoys about 15 billion yuan of national preferential policies each year (of which tax revenue is about 4.5 billion yuan, raw materials is about 1 billion yuan, electricity is about 4.5 billion yuan, and transportation is about 5 billion yuan), so the relevant preferential policies are gradually canceled in the country. After the policy, it will increase the production cost of the company. On the other hand, since grain production is related to national economy and people's livelihood and farmers are relatively economically disadvantaged, the rise in fertilizer prices cannot be entirely passed on to the full cost. Therefore, it is expected that the profitability of fertilizer production enterprises will be reduced, especially if those processes are relatively backward. Those small and medium-sized fertilizer companies with large energy consumption and small scale will be more difficult in the competition. However, those nitrogen fertilizer companies that adopt advanced coal gasification technologies and have higher management levels are expected to grow further. In addition, large fertilizer companies with obvious cost advantages will have the opportunity to restructure and merge.
Sixthly, the speed of adjustment of industrial structure will accelerate. By the end of November 2006, China officially issued the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan for Development of Science and Technology for Chemical Industry”. It is expected that this outline will be implemented more effectively in 2007 and beyond.
The plan outlines the overall goals for scientific and technological development in the chemical industry in the next five years, including 5% of key and key enterprises, and 8% of high-tech companies; breaking through 30 key technologies that restrict the development of the industry, and developing 5 to 8 large-scale self-developed technologies. With complete set of chemical equipment, the output value ratio of fine chemicals will reach 48%, the contribution rate of science and technology will reach 60%, and the ratio of science and technology input to sales revenue will reach 1.5%, and a number of high-tech industries will be implemented during the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” period. Demonstration project. The implementation of this plan will help China speed up the elimination of outdated technologies and technologies with high consumption and high energy consumption, and promote the upgrading of industrial technology and industrial restructuring. It is believed that those enterprises with higher technical barriers, focusing on continuous improvements in technological processes, and advocating energy conservation and consumption reduction and circular economy will continue to grow in the structural adjustment of China's chemical industry.

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